Slowdown in Global Trade Due to Increasing Protectionism Will Cause Temporary Setback to Indian Exports: Ganesh Kumar Gupta, President, FIEO
Indian exports have always been influenced by the growth in global trade and therefore, the subdued global trade forecast of 3.9% in 2018 and 3.7% in 2019 as against 4.7% in 2017 will have adverse bearing on Indian exports, said Mr Ganesh Kumar Gupta, President, FIEO. While exports have done well in the first five months of the current fiscal, they are likely to face greater challenge in months to come. The sanctions on Iran, payment problems in Venezuela, huge depreciation of currencies of Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, Russia, Brazil, etc and banking restrictions on large number of OFAC sanction countries like Syria, Sudan, Libya, Iraq, etc. are affecting exports in no less measures.
On domestic front, flow of credit to export sector is a huge issue as export credit declined by over 41% in April-June, 2018 while export growth during the same period grew by over 14%. Such mismatch does not augur well for exports and thus needs to be addressed immediately and effectively, said President, FIEO. He urged that the GST refund pendency should be brought to a month level by addressing technical issues and focussing on ITC refund moving it to an electronic platform.
The trade war between US and China will provide opportunity to India in respect of many products yet the issue of market access and diversification to new market will take some time to fructify, said FIEO Chief.
We are on our course to achieve USD 350 billion exports in 2018-19, yet the export growth for the month of September and November, 2018 has to be watched carefully as exports in both these months clocked over 25% growth in 2017 and thus would have the disadvantage of high base effect. However, the order booking position of exporters are very much encouraging which points to a double digit growth of 15-20% during the current financial year, despite temporary setbacks, reaching a new milestone of USD 350 billion said Mr Gupta.
