India was a net importer of steel for the first half of FY25, with import of the metal standing at 4.7 million tonnes (mt) – up 41 per cent y-o-y – while exports dipped to 2.3 mt, down 36 per cent. Import was more than double that of exports at 2.4 mt, according to an internal report of the Union Steel Ministry.
The country was a net exporter of steel by 0.3 mt in the year-ago period (6MFY24) with imports being at 3.3 mt and exports at 3.6 mt.
According to the report, there is pressure of imports, specially from China and Korea. But on a sequential or month-on-month basis, the rate of growth of imports is manageable. It is in low single digit numbers. On the positive side, there has been substantial improvement in exports sequentially. Some price firm up in China is being seen, which if it plays out in the long- run is a positive.
In September, finished steel imports were at around 1 mt, up 78 per cent y-o-y; but staying at August level (flattish at 1 mt). Exports for the month stood at 0.4 mt, up 16 per cent over the previous month (0.34 mt); but down by 8 per cent over the same month last year (September 2023 exports at 0.43 mt).
Finished steel includes hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, coated steel, non-alloyed offerings, alloy steels and stainless steel.
Market participants say prices of Chinese HRC (SS400) have improved post the stimulus announcement and ahead of the Golden Week holidays. The assessed prices of Chinese HRC (SS400) stood at $ 510/t FOB Rizhao, and $540/t CFR India as on October 2.
Prices from China (freight exclusions) stood at $ 410 per tonne, averaging out for July – September period.
As per the Ministry report, non-alloyed steel (which include HRC, CRC and others) – used mostly in day automobiles, electrical and capital goods, etc – witnessed an over 55 per cent y-o-y increase for the first six months of the fiscal to 3.5 mt; while in September there was a 95 per cent y-o-y increase to 0.7 mt, but declined sequentially by 3 per cent.
On the other hand, alloy and stainless-steel imports were at 1.2 mt, up by 13 per cent y-o-y for the first half of the fiscal. In September, category imports stood at 0.3 mt, up 44 per cent y-o-y and also up by 20 per cent sequentially (vs August).
Domestic steel demand however remained strong witnessing an increase 14 per cent y-o-y in consumption to 73 mt. Consumption in the year-ago-period was 64 mt.
Finished steel production saw a 5 per cent y-o-y growth for 6MFY25 to 71 mt. Steel production by the private sector saw a 6 per cent-odd y-o-y growth to 62 mt, accounting for around 86 per cent of the country’s production of the metal. The remaining 9 – 10 mt came from public sector players include SAIL, NMDC Steel and RINL.
