Transpacific ocean rates have remained high to begin December due to some frontloading in anticipation of a potential ILA port strike after January 15th and expectations of tariff increases the following year. Even before the Lunar New Year 2025 rush, rates to the West Coast were higher than their pre-LNY 2024 highs observed back in January at the beginning of the Red Sea crisis.
According to reports, certain carriers are trying to raise rates at the beginning of the month by implementing significant GRIs (General Rate Increases). A considerable amount of inventory was already built up from frontloading prior to the October strike, the arrival window for moving shipments from Asia to the East Coast before the strike deadline is closing, and there is probably still a runway of at least a few months before tariffs take effect. Although prices may rise later in the month or early in January in anticipation of the Lunar New Year, these variables may make it difficult to sustain rate hikes in early December.
Rates between Asia and Europe were flat last week, but they have begun to rise this week. Daily fares to the Mediterranean are getting close to $6,000/FEU on December GRIs, which represents a US$1,000/FEU increase over the end of November. If these increases persist, they might be the result of both an early start to pre-Lunar New Year demand and carriers’ efficient capacity management through an increase in blankings. Shippers to the Mediterranean, who have the longest additional lead times due to ongoing Red Sea diversions, should make sure that any essential orders are relocated before LNY. If they miss that pre-holiday window, they will have to wait a long time for fresh shipments to arrive.
With MSC adding more port pairs to its stand-alone services and the Gemini Cooperation already taking reservations for its new hub and spoke model, carriers are continuing to announce changes to their services that will take effect with the alliance restructuring in February. Even as we approach the crucial peak season weeks for early December, ex-China rates to North America and Europe have yet to rise, according to Freightos Air Index data. Carriers’ large movement of freighter capacity to ex-Asia lanes in time for Q4 is another crucial factor contributing to the comparatively mild peak season despite still-surging e-commerce volumes, in addition to some shippers’ and forwarders’ frontloading and pre-securing capacity.
