China’s exports fell unexpectedly in October as weakening global demand and steep declines in shipments to the United States weighed on trade, underscoring mounting challenges for the world’s second-largest economy already grappling with soft domestic consumption and sluggish investment.
Official data released on Friday showed that overall exports slipped 1.1% year-on-year — the first decline in eight months. While exports to countries other than the US rose 3.1%, they were insufficient to offset a sharp 25% plunge in shipments to the American market.
Barclays economists warned that if export momentum continues to fade, China’s growth could face a “triple whammy” from the prolonged property sector slump, weak consumer spending, and slowing external demand.
After months of resilience supported by diversified markets, October marked a clear reversal for Chinese exporters. Trade indicators have cooled from the record levels seen earlier this year, with Shanghai port handling its lowest container volume since April.
There could be a modest rebound ahead as the U.S. moves to reduce tariffs on some Chinese goods by 10% starting next week. However, the impact may remain limited since overall tariffs on Chinese products are still significantly higher than those applied to competing exporters like Vietnam.
Further deterioration in global demand could drag China’s exports — and broader economic activity — lower in the coming months. The country’s economic growth had already slowed to its weakest pace in a year last quarter, even as exports remained relatively strong.
The October slowdown was widespread: shipments to the European Union rose just 1%, the slowest pace since February, while exports to key markets such as South Korea, Russia, and Canada fell by double digits.
Meanwhile, in the US, consumer sentiment showed signs of strain. A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that Americans’ outlook on the job market worsened for a third consecutive month, with respondents assigning a 43% chance — the highest since April — that unemployment will rise over the next year. Inflation expectations for the year ahead eased slightly to 3.2% in October, down from 3.4% in September.
