Chinese New Year (CNY) 2026, which falls on 17 February, has once again triggered one of the most disruptive seasonal events for global shipping and supply chains, with impacts stretching from Asian factories to ports and distribution networks worldwide. For many shippers, the real challenge has not been the holiday week itself, but a multi‑week window of capacity crunches, port congestion and slower production before and after the break.
In mainland China, most export-oriented factories ramped down output from roughly 7–10 February, with many workers leaving early to travel home, well ahead of the official public holidays. During this period, buyers pushed to get final orders out the door, compressing several weeks’ worth of shipments into a shorter window and overloading factory docks and local trucking capacity.
Although some plants begin partial restart around 24–26 February, typical utilisation in that first week is often only 20–40%, with a more meaningful return to normal production levels not expected until early to mid‑March. This staggered restart means that even after the holiday ends, order lead times remain extended, and supply chains do not immediately return to a steady state.
The pre‑CNY cargo rush has led to heavy congestion at key Chinese export gateways such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Nansha and Guangzhou, where terminals tightened gate‑in rules and prioritised containers with confirmed bookings. In some ports, once a vessel’s allocation was met, additional boxes were rolled to later sailings, pushing up storage, trucking and handling costs for shippers.
At the same time, trucking capacity around major ports has been squeezed by seasonal labour shortages, with reports of drayage costs rising 200–300% compared to normal, and longer waiting times to secure drivers and appointment slots. This combination of congested terminals and scarce trucking has lengthened door‑to‑door transit times and reduced schedule reliability across many Asia–Europe and trans‑Pacific services.
Carriers have again used capacity management as a tool to navigate the CNY cycle, first adding sailings or upsizing vessels to capture pre‑holiday demand and then announcing blank sailings once factories shut. On lanes such as Asia–North Europe and Asia–Mediterranean, deployed capacity ahead of the holiday has been estimated at 50–60% above baseline, followed by sharp withdrawals as carriers cancel voyages and rebalance their networks.
This pattern can amplify volatility: shippers face a scramble for space, equipment shortages and premium surcharges before CNY, then reduced sailings and patchy service frequency afterwards as lines pull capacity and adjust rotations. While headline freight rates may stay relatively stable in the immediate lead‑up to the holiday, the combination of surcharges, longer lead times and reduced schedule options effectively tightens conditions for cargo owners.
To cope with the 2026 CNY window, many supply chain teams have pulled orders forward by several weeks, increasing safety stocks to cover late February and early March demand. Forwarders and BCOs have also focused on securing space early, diversifying carriers and routings, and using real‑time visibility tools to monitor port and inland bottlenecks.
Industry advisories for 2026 emphasise a few recurring tactics: locking in bookings well before the final production window, building flexibility into delivery promises, and planning for a longer-than-expected recovery period after factories reopen. For many operators, Chinese New Year has become less a single holiday event and more a seasonal “campaign” that must be managed end‑to‑end across production, ocean freight, and downstream distribution.
