Global air cargo demand received an early holiday lift in November, rising 5% year-on-year, but growth driven by e-commerce—the sector’s strongest engine over the past two years—is now beginning to taper, according to new analysis from Xeneta.
The final stretch of 2025 had been expected to deliver only modest activity, yet volumes in September and October surprised on the upside with 3% and 4% year-on-year increases. November’s continuation of this trend puts the market on course to finish 2025 with overall growth of around 4%, ahead of what analysts anticipate will be a far tougher 2026.
Capacity additions in November kept pace with rising demand, though the expansion in supply for the full year continued to lag behind. Even so, the improving balance between supply and demand has yet to translate into significantly lower prices. Global spot rates fell 5% year-on-year to USD 2.73 per kg in November—a steeper decline than October’s 3% drop—suggesting carriers are prioritising market share over rate discipline and putting further pressure on yields. Month-on-month, spot rates climbed 6%, a slower rise than the 9% recorded in November 2024.
Across major trade lanes, November spot rates were uniformly below year-ago levels. Europe–North America saw its first annual decline, with rates down 8%, outpacing the global average. While the corridor still posted a strong 27% increase month-on-month, this was markedly lower than the 42% surge seen last year, when freighter operators diverted aircraft toward e-commerce-heavy routes.
Northeast Asia performed comparatively well. Carriers redeployed freighter capacity from the transpacific to Asia–Europe, stabilising yields across both trades. As a result, inbound spot rates from the region to North America and Europe slipped only marginally on a year-on-year basis in November, while Black Friday demand spurred double-digit month-on-month rate increases.
Southeast Asia, however, felt the strain of overcapacity and regulatory headwinds. Spot rates to North America and Europe saw double-digit annual declines, driven by aggressive carrier deployment aimed at capturing demand that has grown nearly 50% for North America-bound cargo. Tighter de minimis rules affecting e-commerce transits through Northeast Asian hubs also softened volumes. Backhaul markets remained muted with minimal rate fluctuations amid abundant capacity.
Despite the stronger-than-expected close to 2025, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw warned that market conditions could shift next year. Many shippers, he noted, have been absorbing higher costs related to U.S. trade tariffs but will soon need to replenish inventories, potentially amplifying tariff impacts on cargo flows. With U.S. consumer confidence weakening and prices set to rise in 2026, sentiment could deteriorate further.
E-commerce flows into Europe may also face new pressures. The EU will introduce an accelerated de minimis reform in 2026 to address widespread undervaluation of low-value parcels—a category that reached 4.6 billion items in 2024. Up to 65% of these shipments are believed to be undervalued, with 91% of sub-EUR 150 parcels originating from China. While the EU’s long-term e-commerce data hub will not be operational until 2028, a temporary framework—including proposals for a flat EUR 2 fee for direct-to-consumer parcels and EUR 0.5 for warehouse-handled items—is expected to take effect in 2026. However, given the marginal additional cost to consumers, analysts believe the reforms will have limited impact on demand.
