The Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) has forecast India’s total merchandise exports to reach $124.8 billion in Q4 (January-March) of FY 2025, with a 3.64% year-on-year growth. Non-oil exports are projected to grow by 11.34% to $109.3 billion, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to total $98.5 billion, reflecting a 10.1% year-on-year increase during the same period.
The forecast attributes this momentum in exports to a strong agricultural harvest, a revival in manufacturing, and improving global demand from trading partners. However, it also highlights geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties as key risks and challenges. The projection suggests continued growth in total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil & non-gems and jewellery exports in the first quarter of the next financial year. Nevertheless, the outlook remains subject to risks such as global trade policy uncertainty, rising geo-economic fragmentation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
India’s total merchandise exports for FY 2025 are projected to reach $446.5 billion, representing a 2.2% increase over FY 2024. Non-oil exports are forecast at $382 billion, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are expected to reach $350 billion for FY 2025. This quarterly forecast is based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for Q1 FY 2026 will be released during the first fortnight of May 2025.
