In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India’s coal imports are beginning to reflect shifting global trade and pricing trends. India, the world’s second-largest coal importer after China, has long been seen as a price-sensitive user of the polluting fuel, and trade flows were always likely to be disrupted following Russia’s Feb. 24 attack on Ukraine.
Russia is the world’s third-largest coal exporter and it’s expected that many buyers, especially in Europe and Japan, will stop importing fuel from Russia in coming months as part of economic efforts to isolate Moscow.
India hasn’t been a major buyer of Russian coal, but it will still be affected by the loss of Russian cargoes as other importers seek to replace Russian volumes with supplies from exporters such as Australia, Indonesia and South Africa. These three exporters are India’s major suppliers and are likely to see increasing demand for cargoes in coming months. India’s imports of coking coal have been steady in recent months, reflecting strong demand for steel, both for domestic consumption and for export. For thermal coal, it appears India is trying to shift to cheaper supplies from Indonesia and the imports have marked a decline in April, compared to march.
