Airfreight rates on transpacific routes strengthened in October, buoyed by the onset of the traditional peak season and renewed urgency among shippers amid ongoing US–China trade tensions.
According to the Baltic Exchange Airfreight Index, which draws on spot and contract pricing data from TAC Index, average rates from Hong Kong to North America rose 6.3% month-on-month to $5.70 per kg. Though still 0.5% lower year-on-year, the gap has narrowed sharply from September’s 10.4% annual decline, signaling a steady recovery in demand.
Market sources suggest that spot rates from Hong Kong to North America have continued to edge higher in recent weeks. WorldACD also reported similar upward trends on China–US lanes, attributing the surge partly to importers accelerating shipments ahead of potential new US tariffs on Chinese goods announced on October 10. The move came in response to Beijing’s restrictions on exports of rare earth elements — a development that has intensified pre-tariff shipping activity.
Analysts note that the fourth quarter traditionally brings stronger rates, with demand peaking around December as the market enters its busiest season.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong–Europe rates also gained ground, rising 4.1% over September to $4.59 per kg, though still 5.9% below October 2024 levels. The pace of recovery on the Europe lane remains slower than in previous years, reflecting expectations of a more subdued peak season.
Industry observers suggest that earlier shifts in demand toward European routes—triggered by earlier phases of the US–China tariff dispute—may have resulted in higher inventory levels, reducing the need for urgent shipments this quarter.
Overall, the data points to a robust but uneven rebound, with transpacific lanes leading the seasonal upswing as global trade dynamics and policy uncertainties continue to influence freight flows.
